Lufthansa eyes slow recovery as EX-YU network decimated


Lufthansa expects very slow demand recovery in the face of the resurgent coronavirus pandemic as the airline cuts its number of operations to former Yugoslav markets by 73.8% in December alone, while capacity will be down 78.4% with 64.296 fewer seats. This December, the airline will no longer have flights to Croatia or Bosnia and Herzegovina with operations to Zagreb and Sarajevo temporarily suspended until the summer of 2021. The carrier has also temporarily cancelled flights from Munich to both Belgrade and Ljubljana, however, it continues to maintain operations from Frankfurt to the Serbian and Slovenian capital cities. The German carrier hopes to reach roughly half of its pre-crisis capacity over the course of next year. 

This December, the airline will operate 41 flights to Belgrade offering 5.718 one-way seats, down from 108 flights and 16.478 seats last year. During the month, Lufthansa will be Belgrade’s fifth biggest airline based on both frequencies and capacity, behind Air Serbia, Wizz Air, Montenegro Airlines and Turkish Airlines. In 2019, it was the third biggest by capacity and fourth by flights. In Ljubljana, the airline will offer 32 flights next month and 3.130 seats, down from 91 flights and 8.190 seats in December 2019. Out of the five airlines that plan to operate to the Slovenian capital next month, it will maintain its position as the biggest in terms of the number of offered flights, while it will now also offer the most capacity, whereas in 2019 it was behind easyJet. 

The German flag carrier will have no flights to Zagreb and Sarajevo next month. In 2019 it maintained 107 flights and offered 11.530 seats to the Croatian capital, while it operated 29 flights and put 4.798 seats on sale to Bosnia and Herzegovina in December of last year. Lufthansa was Zagreb’s second biggest airline by both frequency and capacity last year behind Croatia Airlines, while it was the fourth biggest by capacity in Sarajevo, behind Turkish, Austrian and Pegasus, and fifth by frequency, with Turkish, Croatia Airlines, Austrian and Air Serbia ahead. 

Lufthansa expects that capacity in the first quarter of 2021 will be up to 25% of pre-crisis levels, unchanged from the current quarter and well short of the 50% previously envisaged by the end of this year. "Maybe a recovery to 50% of the pre-crisis level could be possible next year, and maybe even up to 60% with business trips coming back in autumn 2021", the company said, emphasising that those hopes are based on the assumption that the pandemic can be tackled with vaccines and broad testing early next year. Reliable forecasts remain impossible for the time being, but advance bookings for private trips in June next year are close to pre-crisis levels and already above them on certain days in September.

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