Australia reopening to provide boost for EX-YU markets

Australia’s reopening for international travel over the next three weeks is expected to provide a notable uplift in passengers for select markets across the former Yugoslavia, as the region saw significant traffic flow to and from the continent prior to the coronavirus pandemic. Most Australian citizens and residents can now travel abroad. As of tomorrow, entry into most Australian states will be permitted to anyone with a valid visa, while from March 2, the state of Western Australia, which boasts a large Croatian, Macedonian and Serbian ethnic population, will finally permit its citizens and residents to leave the state’s boarders after two years. Australia expects huge pent-up demand to generate close to record travel during the upcoming Southern Hemisphere winter.

Gulf carriers accounted for over 70% of travel between Australia and the former Yugoslav markets prior to Covid-19. Their performance in the former Yugoslavia has been hit hard by the continent adopting one of the strictest boarder policies in the world. These measures forced the suspension of Emirates’ service to Zagreb, Etihad Airways’ to Belgrade and Qatar Airways’ operations to Skopje and Sarajevo. The Qatari carrier has also slashed its frequencies to the Croatian capital from fourteen weekly to three weekly, while its operations to Belgrade have now mostly recovered, alternating between five and seven weekly rotations compared to daily flights two years ago.

Croatia has seen the largest number of passengers travelling to and from Australia compared to the remaining markets in the former Yugoslavia. In addition to having a sizable diaspora in Australia, Croatia has seen strong passenger growth from the continent due to tourism, with the country becoming increasingly popular Down Under. Based on OAG data, in 2019, the last full year Australian nationals and residents were permitted to head overseas, 62.888 travelled indirectly between the two countries, meaning they either started or ended their journey in Australia or Croatia on a single itinerary. Based on that data, passengers travelled the most from Sydney and Melbourne to Zagreb. Croatia also saw a notable number of Australian passengers arriving in Split and Dubrovnik. Qatar Airways was the main carrier of choice between the two markets, with over 40% of all travellers opting to fly the Qatari carrier via Doha. In 2020, the airline was also planning to introduce seasonal operations to Dubrovnik to cater for the Asian and Australian markets. However, those plans did not materialise due to the pandemic. Qatar Airways was followed by Emirates as the preferred airline for transfers between Croatia and Australia, while combinations with Star Alliance member carriers, mainly Croatia Airlines and Singapore Airlines, were also popular. Another regional carrier, Air Serbia, profited from its codeshare cooperation with Etihad, with just over 1.400 passengers flying in combination between the two to reach either Croatia or Australia, making it the sixth busiest airline between the two markets. Emirates has said it hopes to restart its flights to Zagreb.

Busiest Australia - Croatia routes in 2019

Busiest airlines for indirect traffic between Australia and Croatia in 2019

Serbia was the second largest EX-YU market from Australia with Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane providing the biggest number of passengers. Qatar Airways was again the carrier of choice, handling 41% of the Serbia – Australia market. It was followed by Etihad Airways with 32%, and the Emirates - Flydubai combination, which accounted for 11% of passengers. Although Qatar Airways has managed to quickly rebuild its frequencies to Belgrade thanks to a notable increase in travellers from India, it plans to maintain between five and seven weekly flights to the Serbian capital this summer, although this could be revised as the Australian market fully reopens. Etihad Airways, which catered for a significant portion of passengers between the two countries, has said it is evaluating the possibility of resuming flights between Abu Dhabi and Belgrade.

Busiest Australia - Serbia routes in 2019

Busiest airlines for indirect traffic between Australia and Serbia in 2019

Macedonia was closely behind Serbia in terms of passenger flow to and from Australia prior to the pandemic. Gulf carriers relied on transfer traffic from Down Under to feed the bulk of their flights to Skopje. A whopping 62% of passengers flew with Qatar Airways between the two markets, followed by Turkish Airlines and its codeshare partners, which held an 11% share of the market, and the Emirates - Flydubai combination with a 10% passenger share. Both Qatar Airways and Flydubai suspended their services to the Macedonian capital in March 2020 and are yet to restore flights. The Dubai-based carrier has tentatively scheduled its return to Skopje for late October, however, Australia’s reopening could see the two Gulf airlines revise their plans for the Macedonian market.

Busiest Australia - Macedonia routes in 2019